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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But the current race is profoundly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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